Beacon Center Poll: Blackburn enjoys early lead over Rose
Chattanooga Times Free Press

U.S. Sen Marsha Blackburn, who’s joined Tennessee’s 2026 gubernatorial race, holds a 52-point lead over U.S. Rep. John Rose of Cookeville among Tennesseans who plan to vote in the GOP primary for governor, according to an early statewide poll.

The poll by the conservative Beacon Center of Tennessee also surveyed 1,173 registered Tennessee voters and found that Blackburn was preferred by 19 points over a generic Democratic candidate. The same was true for Rose, and by the same 19-point margin.

The survey was taken July 27-Aug. 1, before Blackburn officially announced her run Wednesday, and was conducted by Targoz Market Research and has a margin of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.

Six hundred twenty-three individuals — including 243 in East Tennessee, 271 in Middle Tennessee and 109 in West Tennessee — who identified themselves as likely to vote in the Republican primary were asked if an election was held today, and the candidates were Rose and Blackburn, who would they support.

Rose, who represents districts in the middle of the state, carried the most favor among voters in East Tennessee, where Marsha was preferred by 43 points compared to her overall 52-point lead.

Mark Cunningham, the vice president of the Beacon Center, said it is important to note that while these numbers paint a picture of where the race is, there is a lot of time before the primary and election.

The primary elections are Aug. 6, 2026, and the general election is Nov. 3, 2026. The winner will replace term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Lee.

Fifty-one percent of respondents said they would vote for Blackburn as the Republican nominee over a Democratic nominee, while 32% would vote for a Democratic nominee, and 17% were undecided. Blackburn was most favored by voters in West Tennessee.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for Rose as the Republican nominee over a Democratic nominee, while 30% would vote for a Democratic nominee, and 21% were undecided.

“I also think it’s worth noting that both Blackburn and Rose are up 19 points on a generic Democrat,” Cunningham said via phone. “It is actually really problematic for the Democratic Party, because usually generic candidates poll better than actual candidates.”

Democrats who have announced or opened fundraising accounts for the race so far, according to Ballotpedia, include Memphis City Council member Jerri Green, Memphis community advocate Carnita Atwater, musician Adam “Ditch” Kurtz and Tim Cyr from Gallatin.

Cunningham said Blackburn’s high polling numbers can largely be attributed to name recognition.

“I think those numbers, while they are unbelievably strong for her, and she’s, you know, in a great position and hugely favored for the seat, it is a little bit slanted because of her name ID numbers,” Cunningham said.

He said that as Rose continues campaigning across the state and increases name recognition, those numbers will probably close to some extent.

“But as of now, you know her name ID and overall popularity with Republicans are kind of what puts her at such a huge advantage starting out,” Cunningham said.

Blackburn has worked in Tennessee politics since 1998, when she was first elected to the Tennessee Senate, and has served in the U.S. House of Representatives. In 2018, she was elected to the U.S. Senate, winning the seat formerly held by Chattanoogan Bob Corker. In her first term, she served as chair of the Republican National Committee’s platform committee. She was reelected to the Senate in November, when she defeated Democratic challenger state Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville.